Modelling energy use in UK buildings: statistics showing the way forward.

The present Government has a target for reduction of the UK's carbon dioxide emissions of 20% of 1990 levels by the year 2010, which is in fact greater than the legal commitment set at the Kyoto summit on climate change in December 1997. Energy use in buildings accounts for approximately half of tl1e UK's annual carbon dioxide emissions and thus a reduction in the energy used in buildings is vital for this target to be achieved. A detailed knowledge of how energy is currently used is essential for assessing the potential for reducing the UK's C02 emissions. To this end, the Building Research Establishment., funded by the Global Atmosphere and tl1e Research, Analysis and Evaluation Divisions of the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, has developed two stock models - one for domestic buildings (BREHOMES) and one for the non-domestic sector (N-DEEM). This paper describes both these models and how they can be used to investigate current and future energy use scenarios including their ability to determine the potential for cost effective energy savings within the sector. More emphasis is given herein to the service sector as this has been less widely published than equivalent data for housing.