Quantification of uncertainty in thermal building simulation - Part 1: Stochastic building model.

In order to quantify uncertainty in thermal building simulation stochastic modelling is applied on a building model. An application of stochastic differential equations is presented in Part I comprising a general heat balance for an arbitrary number of loads and zones in a building to determine the thermal behaviour under random conditions. Randomness in the input as well as the model coefficients is considered. Two different approaches are presented namely equations for first and second order time varying statistical moments and Monte Carlo Simulation. A simple test case is presented showing the mean value process and the standard deviation process (pursuing a confidence interval) for a naturally ventilated atrium during a winter week and during a summer week. Part 2 considers the generation of appropriate stochastic load input.