Development of a commercial sector load aggregation and DSM impact assessment methodology

BC Hydro and their consultant have devised a method for aggregating hourly results from DOE2 computer energy models to simulate sector-wide impacts of commercial deman-side management (DSM) programs. This process assists in the analysis of DSM program impacts on projected utility system load profiles. With this process, BC Hydro can estimate how DSM programs may influence load shape changes and specify programs which best benefit British Columbia. By having a complete energy model of their commercial sector, BC Hydro can simulate the introduction of various DSM programs to see their influence on electricity requirements. The significance of this process is that it provides hourly end-use data which is accessed quickly to show how certain programs influence coincident demand and energy use. Additionally, it provides a model for commercial end-use load projections. Since this aggregation model is calibrated to existing commercial electricity requirements, the utility can see how new construction and demolition rates will impact future commercial electricity requirements. This provides a valuable basis for making program design decisions, refining the evaluation process, and performing integrated resource planning. Moreover, it establishes a demand-side resource planning tool which may be refined through further load monitoring and research efforts.