An energy and carbon dioxide emission scenario for the UK housing stock: some preliminary results.

This paper describes the development of a model which can be used to explore the technical feasibility and policy implications of attempting to achieve 60 - 90% reductions in the C02 emissions from the UK housing stock by the middle of the next century. Reductions of this order are likely to be required across the industrialised countries in order to stabilise the atmospheric C02 concentration and global climate. In order to be able to investigate this problem, a highly disaggregated physically based energy and carbon dioxide model of the UK housing stock has been developed. This model covers both the demand and supply side, and is being used to develop three scenarios of energy use and C02 emissions; namely: a Business-as-Usual scenario; a Technologically Advanced scenario; and, a Radical scenario. Preliminary results indicate that under a Business-as-Usual scenario savings of around 165 PJ of delivered energy (a 9% reduction) and 59 million tonnes of C02 (a 33% reduction) are possible in the domestic sector by the year 2050, based on 1991 figures. The model also suggests that, at least in the domestic sector, the UK may meet both the Kyoto target and the earlier self-imposed 20% reduction target by the year 2010, with measures that appear collectively consistent with a continuation of current trends and policies. However, the more demanding long term goals associated with climate stabilisation are unlikely to be achieved without significant changes to current UK policy, and the implementation of technical measures that go beyond what is currently seen as economically viable or practical.