ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR BUILDINGS AND THE INTERGOVEMMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE’S FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT

This paper reviews the scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) analysis. It pays particular attention to the applicability of these scenarios to the analysis ofenergy demand, energy savings, and reductions of CO2 emissions for the buildings sector. It reachesthe conclusion that the methodology involved in creating the scenarios presented in the IPCCsSpecial Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) which contains little information about energydemand and efficiency causes considerable difficulties in estimating energy efficiency gains orreductions in CO2 emissions from the baseline.We have developed an alternative approach which relies on studies of efficiency potentials inindividual countries. These studies are disaggregated to the level of individual building energy end-usetechnologies. This appears to be a robust methodology. Using this technique, CO2 reductions of 30percent are estimated to be cost-effective in a 20-year time frame. We note however that suchreductions are highly unlikely unless very significant policy efforts are instituted to bring them about.